grass roots weather update

Good Afternoon:

It still looks as though a major winter storm is going to impact inland areas of the mid Atlantic region, and it also looks as though the storm will be able to turn the corner enough to spread snow a little further northward up the coast than it appeared this morning.  The I-81 corridor from Staunton to Harrisburg, as well as the mountains of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and southwestern Pennsylvania will see  the greatest amounts of snow, on the order of 10 to as much as 20 inches…the highest amounts will be found in the mountains, as temperatures will be flirting with 32 enough in the lower elevations to cause some settling/melting of the snow as it falls.  In the D.C. area, I still think that it will be mostly rain to the EAST of I-95, with a change to rain late in the storm causing the quick accumulation of 2- 4 inches.  Outside the Beltway (as well as west of Baltimore) on the west side of town, heavy, wet snow will accumulate to 8 to 12 inches, causing major travel issues, as well as potential powder outages, due to the combination of the weight of the snow and anticipated winds.  After the initial storm tracks from the Midwest to Kentucky and weakens, a secondary storm will take shape somewhere between Norfolk and the North Carolina border.  Very strong winds will develop along the coast, causing erosion and some tidal flooding at the time of high tides.

Now, in this morning’s update, I indicated that the snow would have a tough time accumulating to any great degree up towards Philadelphia/Wilmington and especially further north to New York and southern New England.  I now believe that the blocking pattern will relent enough to allow the storm to turn slightly northeastward rather than simply move eastward and out to sea.  That will bring a light to moderate snowfall to southeastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and the southern half of New Jersey.  Amounts on the order of 3 to 5 inches can be expected…this area will also see temperatures a touch above freezing, and some rain could fall initially, and that could cut these amounts somewhat.  Northern New Jersey, metro New York and southern New England will be on the fringe of the storm, but light accumulations on the order of 1 (NW) to 4 (SE) inches could fall around New York, with anywhere from 3 to 6 inches over eastern Long Island and southern New England…tapering to an inch or two once up to southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire.  It is worth pointing out that the GFS computer model is printing out 2 feet of snow in metro Boston with this storm.  I just don’t believe it at this point.  I will be monitoring the development of the first storm as it moves through the Midwest, and will update again tomorrow morning.  The precip will begin later tomorrow in the mid Atlantic, but Wednesday  and Thursday will be the most unsettled days of this week in the Northeast, so we have another day to fine tune any accumulations.

If you have any questions, feel free to call or email me.  Also, if you haven’t already looked at the video pattern overview that I issued this afternoon, please take a look and learn why I don’t believe that there is much of a chance of any sort of early spring this year.

Regards,

Herb Stevens

Grass Roots Weather